Cheltenham Preview - 01/01/25
- JN Value Betting
- Dec 31, 2024
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
COLONEL HARRY - 14:05 CHELTENHAM - 4/1 (BET365) - 1PT WIN
WHAT A JOHNNY - 14:40 CHELTENHAM - 11/2 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
LANGER DAN - 15:15 CHELTENHAM - 11/2 (GENERAL) - 1PT WIN
The year kicks off with its traditional curtain raiser as all eyes turn to the home of jumps racing, Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The meeting will have to survive a 7:30am inspection on Wednesday morning due to forecast high winds. However, clerk of the course Jon Pullin is confident that the worst of the weather should have passed by the time spectators are filling the stands.
A seven race card is in the offing, which starts in disappointing fashion with a three runner novices' handicap chase, where Kalif Du Berlais looks set to be a warm favourite. The first race of the year in front of the ITV cameras starts in a similar vein, with the five runner Betfair Handicap Chase over just shy of 3m 2f, where Coral Gold Cup runner-up Broadway Boy is a short priced favourite under top weight.
By way of a betting proposition, the day looks set to get underway in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase where nine go to post over 2m 4 1/2f. December Gold Cup winner Gemirande heads the betting for Venetia Williams following an impressive victory over course and distance. That performance has now left him with a career-high mark, up 8lbs and I can him not having it all his own way this time out.
My eye has been drawn to COLONEL HARRY for Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan. Coming from the aforementioned Coral Gold Cup, where 3m 2f seemed beyond him, with Sheehan's mount pulling his way to the lead over a lot further than he'd gone before. Back over a more suitable trip, I can see him settling better and landing a big handicap on his current mark. Beaten only in Grade 1 company as a novice last season, he put the impressive Trelawne to the sword to land a Grade 2 success. Given the forecasted conditions, I can see a going change occurring prior to this race, where we should at least be racing on Soft ground. This shouldn't pose too much of an issue to Colonel Harry after recording one of his novice successes on Heavy ground at Chepstow last season.
COLONEL HARRY - 14:05 CHELTENHAM - 4/1 (BET365) - 1PT WIN
The next is the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle where there is some strong handicap form on offer by way of One Big Bang who finished runner-up to Charles Byrnes' Shoot First at Haydock in sorry conditions in November. Another coming out of that race is Catch Him Derry for the Skelton yard who was pulled up after weakening quickly as they turned for home. Conditions shouldn't be as bad as what they were racing in at Haydock. However, off of an unchanged mark, I am happy to oppose him here. Strackan for Henry Daly is bidding for a three timer to follow-up successes at Uttoxeter and Bangor-on-Dee, but has gone up 18lbs since that first success.
I feel the one to side with here is WHAT A JOHNNY for an Olly Murphy yard which has landed two of the last four runnings of this race. This horse is coming from an in-form yard who are 23% with their runners in the last two weeks. What A Johnny was third in a warm handicap at Market Rasen last time out behind Supreme Gift and Harbour Lake. That was his second run since wind surgery and that could explain his improvement in performance. He's been nudged up just 1lb for that run and I feel he could be the answer for a yard who clearly target this race.
WHAT A JOHNNY - 14:40 CHELTENHAM - 11/2 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
The first graded action of the year in the UK comes in the form of the Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 4 1/2f. Six are set to go to post, with the enigmatic LANGER DAN top on ratings by some way to the rest of the field. A horse which is used to being 'well-in' when racing here and has somehow found himself in a similar situation once again. The two-time Coral Cup winner at the Cheltenham Festival has been forced into pattern company following another facile success back in March. This has seen him be denied Grade 1 success in the Aintree hurdle by a whisker, then following that up by being runner-up to Impaire Et Passe over 2m 5 1/2f at Sandown in the Select Hurdle. A try over 3m in the Long Distance Hurdle proved a step to far. However, back here at his beloved Cheltenham over a more suitable distance, I can see him taking advantage of having what is at least 7lbs in hand on the rest of the field. He has been beaten in this race previously, finishing 8th of 9 behind Marie's Rock two years ago. However, the cynics amongst us will see a pattern with Langer Dan's form prior to turning up at the Festival in March for the last two seasons. Whilst his two Festival successes have been ran on the Old Course, he has ran well over the New Course here when finishing runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the 2022 Martin Pipe - a lot can be said of the winner of that particular contest.
This race has seen some improving horses gain success in the past. Where progressive types Lucky Place and Golden Ace will re-oppose one another here after their tight encounter in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle last time out. Meanwhile Salver for Gary & Jamie Moore heads the betting, where he returns to Cheltenham following his third placed effort in last season's Triumph Hurdle.
LANGER DAN - 15:15 CHELTENHAM - 11/2 (GENERAL) - 1PT WIN
