Cheltenham Festival (Day Two) Preview - 12/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 11
- 7 min read
Updated: Mar 12
BEST BETS:
THE YELLOW CLAY - 13:20 (TURNERS NOVICES' HURDLE - 6/1 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
IMPOSE TOI - 14:40 (CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE) - 17/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
MISTER COFFEY - 15:20 (GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) - 8/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
VANILLIER - 15:20 (GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) - 8/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
MY MATE MOZZIE - 16:40 (GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE) - 8/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
It's certainly 1-0 to the bookies after day one of the Cheltenham Festival, a shock winner of the Champion Hurdle, coupled with an odds-on Arkle favourite being turned over provided pain for punters, and the bookies will be hoping for more of the same on day two. The feature on Style Wednesday is the Queen Mother Champion Chase, which has proved a graveyard for punters in recent years, and a shock result there would certainly leave punters licking their wounds.
Much like the opening day, a Willie Mullins favourite looks set to kick-off proceedings, in the 2m 4f Turners Novices' Hurdle with Final Demand heading the market. He was a comfortable winner of a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, and a performance of a similar level will likely see him go close in this contest. The opposition is led by The New Lion of the Dan Skelton yard, this was an expensive purchase for J P McManus following his success in the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle over Christmas. That race has proved to be an unlucky one for it's winners, with the last eleven Challow winners failing to win this contest. The form of that race hasn't worked out as strong as the Skelton yard would have hoped, but he'll certainly prove popular given his unbeaten record, and he'll be bidding to give Britain a 5-3 lead in the Pretsbury Cup - which would have certainly been a large price given their prospects on day one. I was drawn to the another unbeaten hurdler in the race, by way of THE YELLOW CLAY. Having secured Grade 1, 2 & 3 successes in his four starts over obstacles, Gordon Elliott's inmate looks to have a good chance of at least making the frame in this one, and with 6/1 on offer, I am happy to take the chance at the prices, as he brings some of the strongest form to the table. Elliott is no stranger to success in this contest won two of the last seven runnings.
THE YELLOW CLAY - 13:20 (TURNERS NOVICES' HURDLE - 6/1 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
Another similarity from the first day of the festival is that we have an odds-on Willie Mullins hotpot in the second race of the day. Ballyburn is bidding to add a second Grade 1 success at the Cheltenham Festival, following his win in the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle (Turners Novices' Hurdle) last year. He landed Grade 1 honours at the Dublin Racing Festival when upped to 2m 5 1/2f last time out. This showed that he is more than capable of stepping up the 3m for this contest, and he looks to take all the beating. Stablemate Dancing City looks set to go off second favourite in this one, but the current ground may be a little on the quick side for him, and will undoubtedly play into the hands of Ballyburn.
We unsurprisingly have a favourite from the Skelton yard for the Coral Cup, where Langer Dan has recorded back-to-back successes in the race following two seasons of being laid out for the race. Sadly for connections, his handicap mark has not been able to slip under the radar this year, and he's been aimed at the Stayers' Hurdle. Instead, they saddle Be Aware, who has recorded two placed efforts in Premier Handicaps this season, including when second in the Greatwood Hurdle at the November meeting. This has been labelled as Dan Skelton's best chance of a winner at the festival by the man himself, and he'll be sure to be a warm favourite on that evidence. My eye has been drawn to the price of J P McManus owned IMPOSE TOI for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville. The pair landed this contest in both 2019 and 2020, with William Henry and Dame De Compagnie respectively. Impose Toi comes into this one fresh, having landed a 2m 4f handicap at Newbury in November on his seasonal return. He is up just 7lbs for that comfortable success, and is sporting first time cheekpieces for this contest - which is a positive given four of the last six winners have worn headgear. This will be his first run for 102 days, and horses tend to do well in this after coming in from a lay-off.
IMPOSE TOI - 14:40 (CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE) - 17/2 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
The Cross Country Chase has a glittering roll of honour, with Tiger Roll and Delta Work winning multiple editions in recent years. Due to the course being flooded last year, this race was absent from the schedule. However, it returns this year, now as a handicap. The best form for the race comes by way of top-weight and favourite Stumptown. Gavin Cromwell's runner landed a course and distance success in December, and has been nudged up 8lbs as a result. The winning margin that day was one length, however, this could have been far more if it wasn't for a canny ride from Keith Donoghue - who has landed four of the last six runnings of this contest. The runner-up on that occasions was MISTER COFFEY, who is still awaiting his first win over fences, however, he looks set to be a warm proposition in the market. He has had two runner-up efforts over course and distance, and he is 5lbs better off than when he went down to Stumptown last time out. Despite still awaiting his first chase win, he has placed in eleven of his fifteen chase starts. He looks set to at least make the frame, if he is granted a free round of jumping. That makes the 8/1 available a sensible each-way proposition.
Another who comes into this one with solid claims is former Grand National runner-up VANILLIER. He recorded an 18 length victory at Punchestown last time out, and is up only 3lbs for that emphatic success. He has had a spin over these fences in December, and will definitely be a popular in the market, given the level of form he ran to in his win, beating Coko Beach (who he opposes again today). He is also wearing a tongue tie, and has retained the blinkers he wore last time out. Nine of the last eleven winners wore a tongue tie, and all of the last eight winners wore headgear. Given this has now become a handicap, it's hard to read into the form of the previous races over this course this season, with competitors having one eye on keeping their mark down for the festival. However, Vanillier will certainly be tuned up for this one.
MISTER COFFEY - 15:20 (GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) - 8/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
VANILLIER - 15:20 (GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) - 8/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The feature race of the day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2m, where Jonbon is odds-on to claim his first Cheltenham Festival success. He sets a clear standard on form and in the ratings, having landed back-to-back Grade 1 successes in his last two races - the Tingle Creek and Clarence House chases. He started his season off with a course and distance success in the Shloer Chase at the November meeting - his second success in the contest. Those are his only two victories at Cheltenham, with all his three career defeats coming here. That will certainly be uneasy for backers of Jonbon at such a short price. However, he looks set to end his Cheltenham Festival wait, and land the feature on day two, and it would be a record breaking seventh success in the race for trainer Nicky Henderson. There is the possibility of each-way value being available, with three places on offer in this eight runner race, especially with previous winners Energumene and Captain Guinness in the lineup. However, it was hard to make a case for anything solid as an alternative, so I am happy to bypass this race by way of a betting proposition.
The penultimate race on day two is the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase, where Unexpected Party is favourite to record back-to-back successes in the race, only being 6lbs higher than his comfortable victory in 2024. I was keen to get MY MATE MOZZIE onside with him being raised just 3lbs for his runner-up effort behind An Peann Dearg at the Dublin Racing Festival. He has only finished outside the top two in one of his five chase starts - finishing sixth in the 2024 Arkle Chase. A run to anywhere near his rating should see him at least place in this one, and the 8/1 on offer seems generous. There is every possibility that Unexpected Party is another Skelton 'handicap plot'. However, I am happy to take the sensible approach and look elsewhere for some each-way value.
MY MATE MOZZIE - 16:40 (GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE) - 8/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The Champion Bumper brings the card to a close where Willie Mullins looks set to saddle four of the first five in the market, with Copacabana heading the market at 3/1. He recorded a smooth success at Naas on debut, and the word coming out of the Mullins stable is that this is their main chance in the race, ahead of Gameofinches and Bambino Fever. The latter landed a Grade 2 Mares' race at the Dublin Racing Festival, taking her tally to two out of two under rules. Any challenge outside of the Mullins stable comes from Gordon Elliott by way of Kalypso'chance, who landed Listed honours at Navan in December, but comes to this one off a break. This looks set to go to Ireland, with most of the British challenge having question marks surrounding their chances.
