Cheltenham Festival (Day One) Preview - 11/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 10
- 7 min read
Updated: Mar 11
BEST BETS:
ROMEO COOLIO - 13:20 (MICHAEL O'SULLIVAN SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE - 7/1 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
FAMOUS BRIDGE - 14:40 (ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE) - 20/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
BEYOND YOUR DREAMS - 16:40 (FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE) - 6/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
TRANSMISSION - 17:20 (NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE) - 5/1 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The greatest show on turf gets underway on Tuesday as there will be an Irish invasion on the Cotswolds. Much like recent years, an Irish domination looks likely. Especially with only two British entries in each of the first two races. There are plenty of heavyweight clashes throughout the week, and Champion Day is no exception, with the Brighterdaysahead taking on the unbeaten Constitution Hill, who is looking to regain his Champion Hurdle crown.
The Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle gets us underway at 13:20, with a Willie Mullins hotpot by way of Kopek Des Bordes heading the market at even money. He will prove to be a warm favourite and brings the best form line into the race with his 13 length success in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novices' Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. There are certainly doubts surrounding his ability to get worked up in the preliminaries, and should he keep a lid on it, you'd expect him to get favourite backers off to a strong start. I am keen to take him on, especially with the short price. Willie Mullins has had the beaten favourite in the last three renewals, and I am keen to take an each-way angle in the race to cover this happening again. ROMEO COOLIO is the only other Grade 1 winner in the lineup, having won the Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. The 7/1 on offer is worth an each-way poke, with three places on offer. It's hard to see him not making the frame, as he brings the second best form into the race. Should he run to anywhere near his rating of 148, that should be enough to at least land some place money. He brings course form to the table, with his second place finish in the Champion Bumper at last year's festival. This gives him an advantage on the remainder of the field, aside from Salvator Mundi, who ran in the Triumph Hurdle last year.
ROMEO COOLIO - 13:20 (MICHAEL O'SULLIVAN SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE) - 7/1 (GENERAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (3 PLACES)
Another short-priced Willie Mullins favourite awaits us in the second race, where last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough is odds-on to land the Arkle. Willie Mullins' charge is unbeaten in his two starts over fences, and landed Grade 1 honours in the Irish equivalent of this race at the Dublin Racing Festival. The absence of Sir Gino in this race has taken the edge of it, and means that the British challenge is led by L'Eau du Sud, who is also unbeaten in his four chasing starts. It is easy to see Majborough taking all the beating here, but I am not willing to back him at such a short price. The lack of runners in the race has led to there only being two places on offer for each-way backers, and therefore, I am happy to make this a no bet race.
The British will be happy to see the Ultima Handicap Chase up next, as this looks their first real opportunity of getting on the board in the Prestbury Cup. There has only been two Irish winners from the last 56 runnings of this race, and the market supports this with the first four being from British based yards. The Changing Man, Broadway Boy and Katate Dori are all vying it out for favouritism, having all displayed strong form in staying handicaps throughout the season. Broadway Boy brings key course form to the table, and could easily land this prize for the Twiston-Davies yard. Once again, I am keen to look for value aside from the favourites, and have been drawn to Nicky Richards' runner FAMOUS BRIDGE. The nine year-old was a remote fourth place in this contest twelve months ago, but was 12 lengths clear of fifth place. That was on Heavy ground, and the drying ground could prove a concern here. However, he did land the Grand National Trial at Haydock last time out on Good to Soft ground. He has only been nudged up 4lbs for that comfortable success, and I feel there could be some juice in his price, with five places on offer.
FAMOUS BRIDGE - 14:40 (ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE) - 20/1 (BET365) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
After much deliberation, Lossiemouth's Champion Hurdle plans have been shelved for this season, and she bids to retain her Mares' Hurdle crown. Following a fall last time out when odds-on favourite to land the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, there were doubts as to whether she would be up for taking on Constitution Hill for the second time this season. However, the signals from the market were confirmed at the two-day declaration stage, when she was rerouted to the Mares' Hurdle. She looks set to go off a very short price, and that is fully justified given her comfortable success in this race last year. There is every chance that she will get the better of the opposition here, which is headed by stablemate Jade De Grugy. Lossiemouth is 9lbs clear on the ratings, and should that fall at Leopardstown not have left it's mark, she will take all the beating and could be the first back-to-back winner of this race since the great Quevega - who won the contest for six consecutive years for Willie Mullins between 2009 and 2014.
The blockbuster showdown of the day, and the festival comes at 16:00 when Brighterdaysahead looks to claim the scalp of Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Much like with Lossiemouth, there was much deliberation about whether Gordon Elliott's mare would take her place in this race, or the Mares' Hurdle. However, Elliott confirmed last week that his star mare was heading for the feature race. The field also contains the reigning champion State Man, who provides some each-way value for punters, with two short priced horses at the head of the market. This looks set to be a tactical battle, with King Of Kingsfield looking to be a pacemaker for Brighterdaysahead. Whilst there is a chance that she could slip the field, she could easily set this up for Constitution Hill, and I cannot see the 2023 Champion Hurdler being beaten here. He faced a relentless gallop in his Supreme Novices' Hurdle win in 2022, and should that happen again, it could set the race up for him. Given there are only two places on offer, I am happy to bypass this race as a betting proposition, with State Man being the only real each-way value in the race.
Attention turns to the Juvenile Hurdlers at 16:40 where it looks to be a J P McManus domination at the head of the market, with him owning the first three in the market; Stencil, Beyond Your Dreams and Puturhandstogether. Joseph O'Brien trains the latter two of the aforementioned three McManus runners, and he has landed this contest in two of the last six years. I am keen to get BEYOND YOUR DREAMS on side following his success at Fairyhouse last time out. He got the better of Slurricane late in the race, and opposes that rival once again here. The winning margin was not as large as it could have been, with Beyond Your Dreams getting up in the final strides, and he has only been given a rating of 123 as a result. That looks to have him thrown in for this, with him finishing just half a length behind Total Look two starts ago, who is rated 132 for this race. He sports first time cheekpieces for this, and I feel that they could aid his chances, with runners wearing headgear having a good record in this race. This is a race where there are plenty of potential 'handicap blots', and with 5 places on offer, an each-way proposition looks the way to go. Willie Mullins saddles Murcia, who finished runner-up at Naas in her last outing, a race which has provided four of the last six winners. However, the Closutton maestro has a wretched record in this race, being 0-23 with his runners, and have only four placed horses from those. The British challenge looks set to be headed by Hot Fuss, who was a useful flat performer (rated 93), and was last seen winning in that code at Southwell. He finished fourth in a Grade 2 at Chepstow over Christmas, and has been nudged down 1lb for that to run off a rating of 122.
BEYOND YOUR DREAMS - 16:40 (FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE) - 6/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The final race of the day is the National Hunt Handicap Chase. This has become a handicap this year, one of a number of changes to the format of the festival. This has attracted a full field of 18 runners, having only attracted 17 across the last two runnings. The leading form lines in the race are headed by Haiti Couleurs and TRANSMISSION, the latter landed a handicap at Cheltenham in December, getting the better of a fast finishing Transmission over 3m 1 1/2f. The step up in trip looks set to bring the best out of Transmission, and I am keen to get stuck in on the Neil Mulholland runner. He was given a spin over hurdles in the Cotswold Chase last time out, and that should have got him fit for this contest, with him going up just 1lbs from his runner-up effort behind Haiti Couleurs when last seen over fences. He was doing his best work at the end of that run, and given the likelihood of this field being strung out over 3m 6f, Transmission looks set to make the frame given a clear round. I am happy to take a chance on him each-way with five places on offer.
TRANSMISSION - 17:20 (NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE) - 5/1 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
