Cheltenham Festival (Day Four) Preview - 14/03/25
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 13, 2025
- 6 min read
BEST BETS:
VALGRAND - 14:00 (WILLIAM HILL COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE) - 9/1 (GENERAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
JET BLUE - 15:20 (ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE) - 7/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
RYEHILL - 16:40 (ST JAMES'S PLACE HUNTERS' CHASE) - 10/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The bookies' good run continued on St Patrick's Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival, with a warm favourite being denied in the opener, Teahupoo being denied by Bob Olinger in the Stayers' Hurdle, and a warm J P McManus favourite going down by a neck in the last. It looks as if the punters could strike back on Gold Cup day. However, with the shocks on offer this week, anything could happen.
Gold Cup day kicks off with the JCB Triumph Hurdle, where East India Dock and Lulamba battle it out for favouritism, with the former having an emphatic course and distance success under his belt, while Lulamba is the unknown quantity, who won well on British debut at Ascot, and has been at the head of the antepost market ever since. In an unusual turn of events for this race, the Irish challenge only comes in as the third favourite, as Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner Hello Neighbour looks to land his second successive Grade 1 success. Willie Mullins saddles eleven of the eighteen runner field. However, he doesn't have one of the top three in the market for the first time since 2021. There is every chance that one of his runners is open to huge improvement, however, it looks as if the top two in the market could make it an intriguing contest. East India Dock brings the course and distance form, and is the sensible bet of the two, but Lulamba is certainly open to massive improvement.
The County Hurdle is the second race of the day, where Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have dominated in recent years, winning nine of the last ten renewals. They both look to have a strong hand once again, with Mullins saddling last year's winner Absurde, and he also has the current favourite in Kargese. I have been drawn to the Skelton first string VALGRAND, he recorded a 17 length Grade 2 success here in October, and although he has not kicked on from that, this looks to have been his target all season, and with the record of his stable in the race, there's every chance he can go close in this one. Last year's Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle winner Lark In The Mornin looks set to go well for Joseph O'Brien, while the ever so shrewd Emmet Mullins runs McLaurey, who has gone up 16lbs for his Dublin Racing Festival victory. However, there's a chance that might not stop him here.
VALGRAND - 14:00 (WILLIAM HILL COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE) - 9/1 (GENERAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
In a change to the schedule for this year, the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase has been brought forward from it's usual penultimate spot on the running order. One thing that hasn't changed, is the pretenders bidding to get a Grade 2 success under their belts. Dinoblue heads the market, following her runner-up effort in this contest 12 months ago. She opposes stablemate Allegorie De Vassy once again, with Dinoblue getting the upper hand in the pairs' meeting last month. Limerick Lace who stayed on well to deny Dinoblue last year, will attempt to become the first back-to-back winner in the race's history. J P McManus has won three of the four runnings of the race, and holds a strong hand to make it four out o five. Despite being denied in the race last year, I feel that Dinoblue could have had a chance of landing the Queen Mother Champion Chase, when Captain Guinness benefitted from the fall of El Fabiolo. She bids to gain compensation for that defeat last year, and she looks to take all the beating.
The final Novices' race of the festival is up next, where The Big Westerner bids to maintain her unbeaten record in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. She is in receipt of a handy 7lb Mares' allowance in this contest, and that could make all the difference in what is usually a fierce stamina test. I was drawn to the chance of JET BLUE, he recorded a course and distance success in a Grade 2 contest back in December, and should he run anywhere close to that level, he should be able to be involved in the business end of this one, given the pure stamina test that awaits the runners. The fact he has scored over course and distance gives him the upper hand on his rivals, with there being question marks as to whether some of them can handle this challenge. Wendigo had his form boosted on Wednesday when The New Lion won the Turners' Novices' Hurdle, following on from his success over Wendigo in the Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury over the Christmas period. He looks as if he will go well under Gavin Sheehan for Jamie Snowden. This race has proved a graveyard for favourites in recent years, with no winning favourites in the last eleven runnings, and the average starting price of the winner being 22/1 in that period.
JET BLUE - 15:20 (ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE) - 7/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
Galopin Des Champs is on the brink of Cheltenham Festival greatness, as he is a very short-priced favourite to land a third consecutive Cheltenham Gold Cup, and become only the fifth horse in the history of the race to win it on three occasions. A field of nine runners look set to go to post for the feature race of the whole festival. However, the challenge looks to be forlorn for all other competitors, with Galopin Des Champs being at leadt 9lbs clear on ratings from the remainder of the field. King George winner Banbridge steps up in trip to try and claim Galopin Des Champs' crown. Antepost Grand National favourite Inothewayurthinkin has been supplemented for this contest, and is somewhat of an unknown quantity, following him recording an emphatic success over course and distance in the Festival Plate Handicap Chase at last year's festival. However, the main danger to Galopin Des Champs appears to be the fences.
The St James's Place Foxhunters Chase is the penultimate race of the festival, and Angel's Dawn looks set to head the market, following the ease in which she has recorded her wins in this discipline. She won the 2023 Kim Muir Challenge Cup at this meeting, and looked set to go close before falling late on in the same contest last year, and she could easily make mockery of this field. She will by vying for favouritism against Willitgoahead, who was snapped up by Bective Stud at the start of the week, and has been sent to Gordon Elliott immediately. He looks open to major improvement following a comfortable win over Ramilles at Thurles in January. It's On The Line has been runner-up in this contest on two occasions, and will be hoping to go one better this year. However, this looks a deeper contest, and his form has not been as consistent this season. My attention has been drawn to RYEHILL who dispatched the aforementioned It's On The Line by 17 1/2 lengths at Naas last time out, and looks one of the rise. He was six lengths behind favourite for this race, Angel's Dawn at Dromahane over Christmas, and should he have improved, he can certainly go close in this race. Given the 10/1 on offer in comparison to It's On The Line being half the price, it makes this a generous price and I am happy to get stuck in.
RYEHILL - 16:40 (ST JAMES'S PLACE HUNTERS' CHASE) - 10/1 (CORAL) - 0.25PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
The curtain comes down on the 2025 Cheltenham Festival with the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle, a race which has produced some nice types in recent years. Galopin Des Champs got the better of Langer Dan in 2021, and both horses have gone on to record two further Cheltenham Festival successes each since that contest. Banbridge also won this race in 2022, and is now opposing the 2021 winner of this race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Iroko won the race in 2023, and is towards the head of the Grand National market, with that race being it's target all season. Better Days Ahead won this contest twelve months ago, and has gone on to place in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase this week. There is every chance that another nice type comes out of this race, with French recruit Kopeck De Mee - who looks to have an enormous amount in hand on his British debut, and the unbeaten hurdler Wodhooh look set to face off.
