Carabao Cup Final - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Mar 15
- 2 min read
Updated: Mar 21
BEST BETS:
LIVERPOOL - TO LIFT THE TROPHY & UNDER 3.5 MATCH GOALS - 11/10 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
UNDER 0.5 MATCH GOALS - 16/1 (SKY BET) - 0.25PTS
The first domestic silverware of the season is up for grabs at Wembley on Sunday afternoon, with Liverpool looking to retain the Carabao Cup having lifted it last season. Should they get the better of Newcastle, they'll extend the Magpies run without any silverware, which currently dates back to 1955. This is the second appearance in the final of this competition for Newcastle in three years, having lost the 2022/23 Final 2-0 to Manchester United. Eddie Howe's side have experienced some recent injuries and suspensions that are sure to harm their chances in this one, against a Liverpool side who have an impressive CV when it comes to getting their hands on trophies. Their chances of getting the edge over Arne Slot's men were buoyed on Tuesday evening when Liverpool exited the Champions League to PSG after a penalty shootout. Slot will be hoping that hasn't left too much of a mark on his side as he bids to get his first silverware as the Reds coach.
It's hard to see Liverpool losing consecutive games, especially with them not having experienced that thus far this season. Therefore, I am keen to get them onside to lift the trophy in some way. The price for that selection is a short priced 2/5, so in order to get some value, I am happy to double this up with under 3.5 match goals, giving us an 11/10 shot. Six of the last seven EFL Cup finals have seen under 3.5 goals, with five of the last six going under 2.5. It's hard to see that changing here, especially with the nerves that are sure to be felt, especially by Newcastle. The sides met just eighteen days ago, with Liverpool comfortably winning 2-0. A repeat of that will see this selection be an easy winner. It's clear that Liverpool will be feeling the effects of playing 120 minutes on Tuesday evening, and I can see that also leading to a lack of goals, especially on a large Wembley surface. However, much like last year's final against Chelsea, I back Liverpool to get the better of their opponents, due to their sheer winning mentality.
I was surprised to see the price on under 0.5 match goals, being as high as 16/1. Whilst it's incredibly unlikely that either of these sides won't have the ability within their ranks to find a goal within 90 minutes, we have seen three of the last six Carabao Cup finals finish goalless after the first 90 - including when Liverpool lifted the trophy in 2022, with a penalty shootout victory over Chelsea. As mentioned, it's unlikely that this will happen, but I certainly do not expect there to be a glut of goals, and with the 16/1 on offer, I'm happy to have a small punt.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
26/02/2025 - LIVERPOOL 2-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
04/12/2024 - Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
01/01/2024 - LIVERPOOL 4-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
27/08/2023 - Newcastle 1-2 LIVERPOOL (Premier League)
18/02/2023 - Newcastle 0-2 LIVERPOOL (Premier League)
