Brentford vs Arsenal - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Dec 31, 2024
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
BRENTFORD - OVER 10.5 TOTAL SHOTS - 2/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - OVER 1.5 FOULS WON - 8/5 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - OVER 2.5 FOULS WON - 5/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
The Premier League year kick-off at the Gtech Community Stadium on Wednesday night as Brentford host Arsenal. It's been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde season for Brentford with them picking up 22 out of a possible 27 points from their nine home fixtures, whilst in contrast, they only picked up their second point on the road with a 0-0 stalemate against Brighton on Friday night. The formidable home form from Brentford has been the backbone to their season. However, 16 of these 22 points have been accumulated against six of the bottom eight sides in the Premier League. Their unbeaten home record fell at the hands of Nottingham Forest last time out and that could signal a turn in the tide with Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham all up next in the Premier League in West London.
Arsenal come into this one looking to regain second place in the league, whilst cutting into the nine point lead that Liverpool have amassed over them. Whilst the injuries have began to ease for Mikel Arteta's men, they have been resigned to a period without Bukayo Saka following surgery on a hamstring injury. Although, Arteta did stress this was not as bad as first feared. Should the Gunners have their eyes set on lifting the Premier League trophy in May, they'll need to have an almost foot perfect 2025, which has to start in the right manner against Brentford on the first day of the year.
Arsenal's last eight games have all been contested in London, and that run will come to an end following Wednesday evening's fixture, with a trip to Brighton on the horizon at the weekend. They've won six of those aforementioned eight and given the two sides' recent form, I can see this being seven from nine. Given the hosts' home record, I am happy to avoid getting stuck into the visitors at 4/9 in the 'Win' market.
In order to identify some value, my eyes were drawn to the price of BRENTFORD - OVER 10.5 TOTAL SHOTS. The Bees have seen this land in eight of their eleven home games in all competitions this season, whilst Arsenal have seen at least eleven shots from their opposition in eight of their thirteen on the road. Given the 2/1 on offer and with this being as short as 1/1 elsewhere, I'm happy to get stuck in. This has landed in three of Arsenal's last four away games, these were all demolition jobs against Crystal Palace, West Ham & Sporting, with them allowing 15, 12 and 19 in these respectively, so even a dominant Arsenal performance could still see this land comfortably.
BRENTFORD - OVER 10.5 TOTAL SHOTS - 2/1 (WILLIAM HILL) - 1PT
Elsewhere, I was surprised to see the price on Myles Lewis-Skelly in the 'Fouls Won' market to still have held at a valuable price. Lewis-Skelly has taken full advantage of his run in the team that was aided by injuries to a number of Arsenal's more senior defenders. One pattern that has emerged during his appearances, is the number of fouls that the youngster draws. He has been fouled at least twice in four of his five starts in an Arsenal shirt. Whilst he has also been fouled at least once in three of his six substitute appearances, where two of those occasions where he wasn't fouled only amounted to one minute and eight minutes on the field. Therefore, I am happy to have a punt on him to have OVER 1.5 FOULS WON at 8/5 and OVER 2.5 FOULS WON at 5/1.
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - OVER 1.5 FOULS WON - 8/5 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - OVER 2.5 FOULS WON - 5/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
09/03/2024 - ARSENAL 2-1 Brentford (Premier League)
25/11/2023 - Brentford 0-1 ARSENAL (Premier League)
27/09/2023 - Brentford 0-1 ARSENAL (EFL Cup)
11/02/2023 - Arsenal 1-1 Brentford (Premier League)
18/09/2022 - Brentford 0-3 ARSENAL (Premier League)
