Barcelona vs Inter Milan - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record

JN Value Betting
Apr 29
2 min read

BEST BETS:

LAMINE YAMAL - TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 13/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT

LAMINE YAMAL - TO HAVE 3+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA - 9/2 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS

In contrast to the other Champions League Semi-Final, both Barcelona and Inter Milan have become accustomed to European glory, and they'll bid to add to their glittering records in Europe's club competitions. Barcelona come into this round of fixtures as the current tournament favourites following their comfortable progression into the last four having finished second in the inaugural League Phase. They'll face a stiffer task here though against an Inter Milan side who have called upon their impressive defensive record to book their place in the Semi-Finals. The Catalonian's come into this one on the back of Copa del Rey glory, following a 3-2 extra-time victory on Saturday against bitter rivals Real Madrid. Inter cannot boast the same level of form, however, having lost their last three matches, including a 3-0 defeat to Milan rivals AC in the Coppa Italia.

The Barcelona high line has stood the Spanish side in good stead thus far in the Champions League. However, there were signs that this was being exploited in the two legs against Borussia Dortmund in the Quarter-Finals. That could become an issue against an Inter Milan side who will have no problem sitting in and then springing them on the counter attack, much like they did against Bayern Munich in the last round. It looks almost certain that the Italians will deploy the same tactics here, especially in the first leg away from home. That has led me to looking at taking advantage of the shots markets for the Barcelona players. As expected, there wasn't a whole lot of value in their forwards, but I did however dip into the 'Shots from Outside the Area' market. Given the low block that Inter will play, this could lead Barca into getting shots of from distance, and Lamine Yamal looks a prime candidate for this. Yamal is averaging a shot from outside the area every 44 minutes this season for Barcelona - increasing to one every 39 minutes in the Champions League. This has seen 72 of his 152 shots come from outside the area, and against an Inter side facing 4.5 shots from outside the area per game this season on average, he looks overpriced at 13/10 to have 2+ shots from outside the box in this one. I am happy to have a small play on the 9/2 on offer for him to have 3+ given the likelihood of Inter sitting deep for the duration of the game. Yamal is certainly not afraid of getting a shot away at the earliest opportunity, which can be seen below in his shot map.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

LAST 5 MATCHES:

12/10/2022 - Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League)

04/10/2022 - INTER MILAN 1-0 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)

10/12/2019 - Inter Milan 1-2 BARCELONA (UEFA Champions League)

02/10/2019 - BARCELONA 2-1 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League)

06/11/2018 - Inter Milan 1-1 Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)