Aston Villa vs West Ham - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 9
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
MOHAMMED KUDUS - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 4/1 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 6/5 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 7/2 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
MATTY CASH - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 7/4 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
LAMARE BOGARDE - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 17/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
The Graham Potter era gets underway on Friday evening where West Ham visit Aston Villa in the Third Round of the FA Cup. The writing had been on the wall for a long while for Potter's predecessor Julien Lopetegui and his fate was finally confirmed on Wednesday afternoon, and Graham Potter steps into the dugout immediately here. He certainly will not have had the time to mould his squad here. However, I feel the shackles may be off for this West Ham side in this one. For the hosts, a run of seven games within 22 days awaits them and that will undoubtedly lead Unai Emery into rotating here.
Unai Emery stated that he is keen to make an impression on this season's FA Cup following early exits in his previous two attempts at the competition. Emery has always been one to target European success over domestic success, with his Aston Villa side exiting the FA Cup and Carabao Cup before the fourth round in all his attempts since being appointed Villa boss in October 2022. I feel that with Villa's placings in both the Premier League and Champions League, it is unlikely that Emery will make the FA Cup one of his main priorities and they appear vulnerable against a West Ham side who will be hoping to receive a 'new manager bounce'. With that in mind, I am keen to dip into the goalscorer markets for West Ham players - they have scored in their last 10 appearances against Villa and I would back that to continue here, with rotation on the cards. Due to the absence of Jarrod Bowen, the task will likely fall onto the shoulders of Nicolas Fullkrug and Mohammed Kudus, both of which are priced well in the market. However, I have sided with Kudus on this occasion. The Ghanian has found the net 17 times in a West Ham shirt since his move last season and is averaging 3.34 shots per 90 this season. In West Ham's first game since the injury to Jarrod Bowen, Kudus had 5 shots in their trip to the Etihad on Saturday, and I back those sorts of numbers to continue here - at 4/1 against what could be a depleted Villa lineup, I'm happy to get stuck in.
Another West Ham player who is likely to feature given the absence of Bowen and Michail Antonio is Crysencio Summerville, the Dutchman has yet to have a consistent run in the side since joining from Leeds in the summer, and I feel that he will gain his second successive start here. He is averaging 2.39 Fouls Won per 90 this season and up against either of Aston Villa's right backs, I can see this continuing - Matty Cash has averaged 1.48 Fouls Committed per 90 this season, with him committing 2+ fouls in 6 of his 13 starts. Meanwhile, Lamare Bogarde has committed 2+ fouls in 4 of his 5 Villa starts. The prices on offer for Summerville to be fouled, and those of either right back option to commit 2+ fouls are appealing and am happy to take a punt on these. The aforementioned Mohammed Kudus was fouled 5 times when these sides met on the opening day of the Premier League season, with Cash committing 2 fouls on that occasion.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
17/08/2024 - West Ham 1-2 ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
17/03/2024 - West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
22/10/2023 - ASTON VILLA 4-1 West Ham (Premier League)
12/03/2023 - West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
28/08/2022 - Aston Villa 0-1 WEST HAM (Premier League)
