Arsenal vs PSG - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Apr 27
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - TO BE FOULED 2+ TIMES - 5/6 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY - TO BE FOULED 3+ TIMES - 12/5 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
OUSMANE DEMBELE - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 6/4 (PADDY POWER) - 1PT
A shot at European glory awaits either Arsenal or PSG, with both sides yet to get their hands on any major European silverware. They have both been denied in the final previously, but both hold realistic claims of going one step further this time around. Arsenal's comprehensive victory over Real Madrid across both legs in the Quarter-Finals really laid down a marker, and they will be hoping to channel a similar performance to their 3-0 first leg victory over Madrid here. PSG survived an onslaught from Aston Villa in the second leg of their Quarter-Final, even after accumulating a 5-1 aggregate lead even after half an hour of the second leg. The Parisians have improved as the competition has progressed, but they were on the receiving end of a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates back in October. They have tasted defeat on five occasions in this competition this season, so it's impressive that they've even made it to the last four.
Declan Rice claimed the Player of the Match award in both legs against Real Madrid, demonstrating his importance to the Gunners'. Another player who impressed across the 180 minutes against Madrid was youngster Myles Lewis-Skelly, despite being a central midfielder by trade, he has made the left back position his own this season, and looks set to be a key cog in the Arsenal system for many years. One of the key aspects of Lewis-Skelly's game is his ability to draw fouls from the opposition - including when winning five fouls in the Bernabeu in the last round. Lewis-Skelly is averaging 2.94 fouls won per 90 this season, and has been fouled at least twice on 16 of his 21 starts. I enjoyed success in taking advantage of the prices on offer for this earlier in the season. However, the price was shortened in recent months. I was surprised to see that this has been pushed back out to 5/6 for this one, and am happy to take advantage once again. Lewis-Skelly has also been fouled at least three times in 10 of those aforementioned 21 starts, and that makes the 12/5 on offer for that selection look generous.
As mentioned earlier, PSG have improved as the competition has gone on, after failing to win four of their opening five matches they have gone on to win seven of their next nine. A key to this turnaround in form has been Ousmane Dembele. The Frenchman has scored 32 goals and assisted 12 times in 44 games this season, with 28 of those goal involvements coming in his last 21 starts. He has scored or assisted in 17 of those 21 starts, and I was surprised to see we could get 6/4 on him to continue that run here. Arsenal will be looking to take a commanding lead to the Parc des Princes next week, and that could lead to them over committing in this one, leaving gaps for PSG to exploit them. Should they manage to do that, Dembele looks set to play a part.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
01/10/2024 - ARSENAL 2-0 PSG (UEFA Champions League)
23/11/2016 - Arsenal 2-2 PSG (UEFA Champions League)
13/09/2016 - PSG 1-1 Arsenal (UEFA Champions League)
