Arsenal vs Newcastle - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 5
- 3 min read
Updated: Jan 7
BEST BETS:
JOELINTON - TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS - 4/5 (BET365) - 2.5PTS
JOELINTON - TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS - 2/1 (BET365) - 1PT
ANTHONY GORDON - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 23/10 (BETFAIR) - 1PT
ANTHONY GORDON & ALEXANDER ISAK - TO SCORE OR ASSIST - 4.38/1 (BETFAIR) - 0.5PTS
The Semi-Final stages of the Carabao Cup get underway with two sides hungry for silverware facing off at the Emirates, where Arsenal are looking for their first major trophy since their FA Cup triumph in 2020 - which incidentally was behind closed doors, so no fans got to enjoy their victory at Wembley. Meanwhile, Newcastle will be looking for a first major honour for almost 70 years (unless, of course, you regard the Intertoto Cup as a major piece of silverware), two seasons on from losing the final of this competition to Erik ten Hag's Manchester United, so they'll be looking to right those wrongs.
Both of these sides come into this one in good form, with Arsenal not tasting defeat for thirteen matches and Newcastle winning six on the bounce to put themselves firmly in the hunt for another season in the Champions League. Arsenal will be ruing the missed opportunity to close the gap to leaders Liverpool this weekend and may switch their focus to the cup competitions in order to get their hands on some silverware.
Typically, managers will use cup competitions in order to rotate and that could be the case given the hectic schedules for these two teams. However, Mikel Arteta may not have that luxury due to recent injury and illness issues which have plagued his squad. Newcastle have the luxury of an FA Cup tie against Bromley to follow this one, and will no doubt use that as their main opportunity for rotation. Whereas Arsenal follow this with an FA Cup showdown against Manchester United, where I'm sure they'll be keen to keep their hopes of a trophy alive.
Newcastle will have to do without star man Bruno Guimaraes for this first leg following the Brazilian's caution in the win over Brentford in the previous round taking his tally to two in the competition and therefore earning him a one-match suspension. Therefore, I would anticipate that Joelinton will continue in the midfield and the prices for him in the Fouls Committed market jumped out at me. The striker turned centre midfielder is averaging 2.07 fouls per 90 this season and has committed at least two fouls in his last six appearances against Arsenal - when looking at him committing 3+ fouls, this has landed in 5 of his last 6 against the Gunners. I was surprised to the see the 4/5 on offer for 2+ fouls and am happy to extend this further and take the 2/1 on him to commit 3+ fouls. The next best prices on these selections are 8/15 (2+) and 11/10 (3+) whilst it's as short as 2/9 (2+) and 8/11 (3+) elsewhere.
Given the recent goalscoring records of these two sides, I cannot see this finishing 0-0 and would be shocked to not see both sides on the scoresheet. I am keen to exploit the prices on offer for Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak to score or assist. Gordon has scored or assisted in 8 of his last 11 games (including the league fixture against Arsenal) and this has landed in his last seven matches. Whilst he has a good recent record against Arsenal, where he has scored or assisted in two of his three starts against the Gunners in a Newcastle shirt. Alexander Isak has scored in his last seven Premier League matches and has Jamie Vardy's record of eleven straight games in his sights. I am keen to pair him with Anthony Gordon here in the To Score or Assist market, with Isak having a goal involvement in 11 of his last 13. This selection landed in the league fixture between the two sides, with Gordon assisting Isak for the only goal of the game, whilst this has landed in 6 of the last 7 games that the pair have started together.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
02/11/2024 - NEWCASTLE 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
24/02/2024 - ARSENAL 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
04/11/2023 - NEWCASTLE 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
07/05/2023 - Newcastle 0-2 ARSENAL (Premier League)
03/01/2023 - Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
