Arsenal vs Manchester United - Preview, Best Bets & H2H Record
- JN Value Betting
- Jan 11
- 3 min read
BEST BETS:
GABRIEL MAGALHAES - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 17/2 (BET365) - 0.5PTS
WILLIAM SALIBA - TO SCORE ANYTIME - 16/1 (SKY BET) - 0.5PTS
LISANDRO MARTINEZ - TO HAVE 1+ SHOT - 13/8 (UNIBET) - 1PT
Following a 2-0 first leg defeat to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup Semi-Finals, you feel like Arsenal must win this to keep any realistic chances of winning any silverware this season alive. They could have certainly had easier draws for the Third Round, with all other fellow 'Big Six' sides being drawn against League Two opposition or lower - with exception of Manchester United, who are their opponents here. Ruben Amorim's side produced a positive performance at Anfield last weekend to end a run of four straight defeats. They'll look to build on that against an Arsenal side who will still be hurting from their defeat in midweek.
These two sides met in the Premier League just 39 days ago, in what was only the fourth game of Amorim's tenure. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and you'd like to think that Man United's manager now has more of an idea of what he can get out of his squad. In the aforementioned fixture, Amorim adopted a 'park the bus' style of play, with his Man United side only registering an xG of 0.31. They did manage to keep Arsenal at bay for large periods of the match, only being undone by two set-piece goals, Unsurprisingly given Arsenal's ability from such situations. Whether Amorim opts for a similar approach here is unknown. However, the danger that Arsenal pose from set-pieces is certainly not unknown and I am keen to take advantage of this, especially given the vulnerabilities that Man United have shown from dead-ball situations since Amorim's arrival in Manchester. They have conceded from a corner directly on two occasions, whilst Bournemouth and Arsenal both had success aside from this. William Saliba took full advantage of their fragility in the league fixture and I am happy to take a punt on him doing so again here at 16/1. Gabriel was absent for that fixture due to injury, but had enjoyed back-to-back goalscoring appearances prior to that. He also posed a big threat on Tuesday night against Newcastle, and I back him to do the same here. Therefore, I am happy to take the 17/2 on offer for him to get himself on the scoresheet here.
Whilst I have outlined a major flaw in Manchester United under Ruben Amorim, there have been positives - despite their run of four straight defeats. One of those positives has been the emergence of Lisandro Martinez in the Amorim system. The Argentine centre half has been adopting a role on the left side of the back three, he is finding himself in goalscoring positions from set-pieces. Martinez has registered at least one shot in seven of his last eight matches and I am happy to take the 13/8 on offer for him to do so again. 'The Butcher' ended his two-year goal drought at Anfield last Sunday, and I am sure United will be keen to utilise Martinez at dead-ball scenarios once again.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
LAST 5 MATCHES:
04/12/2024 - ARSENAL 2-0 Man United (Premier League)
12/05/2024 - Man United 0-1 ARSENAL (Premier League)
03/09/2023 - ARSENAL 3-1 Man United (Premier League)
22/01/2023 - ARSENAL 3-2 Man United (Premier League)
04/09/2022 - MAN UNITED 3-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
