Aintree Festival (Day Two) Preview - 04/04/25
- JN Value Betting
- Apr 3
- 4 min read
BEST BETS:
WRECKLESS ERIC - 14:20 (ORRELL PARK HANDICAP HURDLE) - 11/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
AFADIL - 17:15 (LYDIATE HANDICAP HURDLE) - 6/1 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
It's Ladies Day on Friday at Aintree, with another four Grade 1 prizes on offer, with the feature being the Melling Chase over 2m 4f. There is also Grade 1 honours for both the novice chasers and hurdlers.
The card kicks off with the aforementioned novices chasers over 3m 1f, where Handstands heads the market for the Ben Pauling team. He landed the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase last time out, getting the better of Arkle winner Jango Baie by a short head. Of the main market principles, he is the only one to have bypassed the Cheltenham Festival, with Novice Handicap Chase winner Caldwell Potter and Grade 1 winning hurdler Dancing City amongst the challengers.
22 go to post for the Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle at 14:20, with Willie Mullins inmate Kopeck De Mee set to prove popular in the betting once again following his blowout in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. The British challenge is led by Be Aware for Dan Skelton, who was well fancied for the Coral Cup, but was only able to finish eighth. The Skelton stable has landed two of the last three runnings of this, and you'd be surprised if they didn't go close once again here. My eye was drawn to WRECKLESS ERIC for Jonjo O'Neill, he was last seen finishing a closing second in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last month. He has been stepped up in trip following that run, and I can see him relishing the extra distance. He was luckless in-running last time out, and the extra four furlongs should allow him to get himself into a handier position in enough time. He is up just three pounds for that effort, and that leaves him nicely treated for this.
WRECKLESS ERIC - 14:20 (ORRELL PARK HANDICAP HURDLE) - 11/1 (PADDY POWER) - 0.5PTS E/W (6 PLACES)
We return to graded action in the third race of the afternoon where Supreme Novices' Hurdle third place Romeo Coolio looks set to go off a warm favourite to land his second Grade 1 of the season. Gordon Elliott has opted to send his charge here, instead of the 2m 4f Mersey Novices' Hurdle on Saturday, where a clash with Lulamba would have awaited. He instead opposes another Joe & Marie Donnelly runner in Salvator Mundi. Willie Mullins' five year-old finished eleven and a quarter lengths behind Romeo Coolio at Cheltenham, but he is sure to be popular amongst punters here. Tripoli Flyer looks the main danger from the British, having skipped the aforementioned Supreme Novices' Hurdle, despite being declared.
The feature race of the afternoon is up next where Jonbon bids to defend his Melling Chase crown having cost himself at Cheltenham last time out when blundering in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, before rallying to finish a remote second. His old adversary El Fabiolo heads the dangers in the small four runner field, which he leads on ratings. Protektorat finished third in this contest last year, and opposes Jonbon once again. However, he was soundly beaten in the Ryanair at Cheltenham when last seen.
It's the turn of the professional jockeys over the Grand National fences in the Topham Chase where the Willie Mullins pair James Du Berlais and Blue Lord head the betting for the Simon Munir and Isaac Souede partnership. In what looks a fiendishly difficult puzzle to dissect from a betting perspective, with plenty of horses with cases to be made for themselves. Blinkers seem to have done the trick for Bad who runs for the Ben Pauling stable following back-to-back victories at Kempton, and whilst he can be fancied, this course and race presents a different level of task. Nicky Henderson landed this race in three consecutive years between 2013 and 2015, and he saddles Excello here who looks to have a chance following the drop back to a more suitable trip, he also is at the bottom of the weights.
The fourth and final Grade 1 of the day is the Sefton Novices' Hurdle over the extended 3m 1/2f where the British saddle the first three in the market, headed by Califet En Vol for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville. He landed Listed honours at Huntingdon last time out, and now steps up in trip for this contest. Gordon Elliott looks to have the best of the Irish challenge, with Jacob's Ladder and Familiar Dreams both winning graded races over hurdles this season.
Another tough puzzle to solve closes out the card on Ladies Day with the Lydiate Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1/2f. Hamsiyann for the shrewd Tony Martin heads the market right at the foot of the weights. He disappointed last time out at Musselburgh, however, he was an easy winner at Cheltenham the time before that under a confident ride from Daniel King. My attention was drawn to AFADIL for Paul Nicholls, who was third in this race last year, and is now 6lbs lower in the weights. He looks to be just coming into form following a second placed effort at Musselburgh before being just denied in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. That race provided the winner of this in two of the last three years, and it could be a good indicator once again. Leading Conditional jockey Dylan Johnston has opted to ride Celtic Dino over his stablemate Lump Sum, and that could prove informative when it comes to the market, with the former being a much shorter price.
AFADIL - 17:15 (LYDIATE HANDICAP HURDLE) - 6/1 (CORAL) - 0.5PTS E/W (5 PLACES)
